Digital Infrastructure Flywheel Model

Evaluate capital efficiency and terminal outcomes under different ASIC deployment paths, internal liquidity timing, BTC price trajectories, difficulty erosion, and protocol halving effects. Outputs include horizon liquidation and a discounted residual stream view to the 2040 terminal boundary.

Horizon sensitivity Capital breach Investor IRR Residual PV to 2040

Investment Summary

The flywheel strategy allocates internal liquidity (and, when necessary, external capital) to acquire and deploy hosted ASIC capacity during an Investment Period. The system converts operating throughput into BTC production; early-period BTC is used to sustain operations and optionally fund incremental growth. After the reinvestment phase, the model shifts into a BTC Accumulation Period, retaining BTC net of hosting OPEX. At a selectable Harvest Horizon, the strategy assumes liquidation of retained BTC to realize a terminal value, while separately estimating the discounted residual value of ongoing BTC production through the year 2040.

This tool is intended for scenario exploration and client discussion. It simplifies real-world variables (hashrate variability, fees, downtime, pool variance, taxes, and operational constraints).

Treasury mode
Retain none M1–24
Treasury mode
Retain net OPEX M25+
Terminal event
Liquidate @ horizon
Residual boundary
Stream to year 2040

Process Infographic

Capital timing → Deploy/Host → Treasury → Harvest + Residual to 2040
Month 1 Months 1–24 Month 25 Horizon 2040 Capital & Timing Liquidity schedule (M1–N) drives feasibility / breach month external capital = max(0, need−buffer) Deploy & Host ASIC purchases (M1–N) retirements → active fleet hosting cost paid monthly Treasury Policy Months 1–24: retain none Month 25+: retain BTC net of OPEX BTC price path drives USD value Harvest + Residual Liquidate BTC at horizon Compute terminal value + IRR Residual PV stream to 2040 1 Investment Period Deploy ASICs using internal liquidity and scenario deployment schedule. Editable: Months 1–N 2 BTC Accumulation Retain BTC net of hosting OPEX after reinvestment policy shift. Policy: begins Month 25 3 Harvest Horizon Liquidate retained BTC to compute terminal value and investor IRR. Select: 24–120 months 4 Residual to 2040 Estimate and discount remaining BTC production stream through year 2040. PV residual shown in Outputs
Linear story: capital timing enables deployment, deployment produces BTC (with erosion + halving step-downs), treasury policy governs retention, and horizon liquidation + residual PV summarize outcomes.

Inputs

Optimizer: ready

Core Assumptions

Market, difficulty, unit economics
Use live-network derivation (global hashrate + block reward)
BTC/year (per device, Year-1): — · Hosted OPEX/year @ kWh rate: — · Efficiency (derived): —
Treasury policy: retain none Months 1–24; retain BTC net of OPEX Months 25+. Terminal liquidation sells retained BTC at end of horizon. BTC production reflects difficulty erosion and protocol halving step-downs.

Investor Return Inputs

Ownership, timing, basis
IRR computed as a terminal distribution metric. “IRR incl PV residual” uses terminal = (Equity value @ horizon) + (PV residual stream to 2040).

Schedules

Deployment + internal funding (Months 1–36)
(Optimizer still targets Months 1–24 only)
Deployed M1–24: —
MonthNew ASICs
Total: —
MonthCash Inflow (USD)
Retirement schedule is fixed per prior assumptions. Deployment optimizer is a greedy feasibility solver targeting $0 external capital through the schedule window.

Outputs

KPIs, charts, checkpoints

Key Metrics

Project + investor view
Active ASICs (end of Month 24)
—
—
BTC Retained (end of Horizon)
—
—
Liquidation Value (end of Horizon)
—
—
External capital required (Months 1–36)
—
—
Residual BTC mined per month (post-horizon → 2040)
—
Approx month after horizon
PV of residual BTC stream to 2040 (USD)
—
—
Investor Equity Value @ Horizon
—
—
Investor IRR @ Horizon
—
—
Investor share of PV residual stream
—
—
Investor IRR @ Horizon (incl PV residual)
—
—
—

Capital Shortfall & Funding Breach

—
Monthly shortfall (USD) Breach marker

Checkpoint Growth

Liquidation value vs retained BTC
Liquidation value (USD) BTC retained (scaled)
Line series is liquidation value at each checkpoint month. Bars show BTC retained scaled onto the same axis for visual context.

Checkpoint Table

12 / 24 / 36 / … / 120

Checkpoint Summary

Expanded full-width view
Month Active ASICs Deployed (gross) Total BTC Earned BTC Retained Est. BTC Price Liquidation Value
Investor IRR is computed as terminal-only. Interim distributions can be layered later (cashflow IRR/XIRR).
Live BTC Market View
TradingView · COINBASE:BTCUSD
Live

The embedded chart is for market context only; scenario price path is controlled via model inputs.